The Chicago Bears are currently at a crossroads in their franchise trajectory, facing a crucial decision regarding Justin Fields. The ongoing debate throughout the city revolves around whether to retain Fields and build around him or to trade him and select a quarterback with the first overall pick. This seemingly endless deliberation has fans drawing parallels between Fields and other past and present players who found themselves in similar situations. Recent examples like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, who thrived with the right offensive system and supporting cast, are often noted. But, after taking a deeper dive, a more fitting comparison lies with someone no one seems to be talking about, former 49ers quarterback, Colin Kaepernick.
At first glance, the similarities between Fields and Kaepernick are fairly obvious. Both have similar mobile playing styles and off-the-charts athletic ability. However, the comparison is much more extensive than that.
The media coverage, game play analysis, and criticisms written about Kaepernick are nearly identical to the content Bears fans have consumed about Justin Fields for the past three years. There was an overwhelming narrative that critiqued Kaepernick for holding the ball too long, taking too many sacks, and not going through his progressions before running the ball.
For example, take a look at Hall of Fame Quarterback Kurt Warner’s comments about Kaepernick after working with him in the 2015 offseason:
“Really trying to get his normal to be a quarterback position as opposed to being an athlete — you know, thinking first as a quarterback and staying in a more throw-friendly position longer so he can get through his progressions and he can be comfortable and he can stay accurate, . . . down through his reads. As opposed to looking at one guy and going, ‘OK, now I can create like I’ve done in the past.’ So that’s the kind of the process we went through.”
Stop me if you’ve heard that one before, Bears fans.
The parallel nature of their careers through their first three years as starters is truly uncanny.
The more you look, the more the similarities become clearer. In college, both quarterbacks tended to be the best athlete on the field, which led them to scramble and go big play hunting when the play broke down and the pocket collapsed. This style of play proved to be both a gift and a curse. While it served each of them early on in their careers, creating big 3rd down conversions with their legs and highlight touchdown runs, defenses ultimately created schemes that forced Fields and Kaepernick to play a style of football they weren’t familiar with.
In a separate interview on the Rich Eisen show, way back in 2015, Kurt Warner had this to say on that very topic:
You could remove Kaepernick’s name in the video and replace it with Fields and the storyline would almost align perfectly.
Early in their careers, both Fields and Kaepernick were able to get away with relying on their athleticism, but the league ultimately caught up. And these defensive adjustments highlighted a number of different underlying issues each of the QBs possess:
Both QBs held the ball too long
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), in 2014 (Kaepernick’s 3rd year as a starter), he held the ball for an average of 2.96 seconds before throwing, which was the third-highest average among the 27 QBs that threw at least half their team’s passes.
During 2023 (Fields’ third year as a starter), he was last in the league among 31 qualified QBs in average time per pass (3.23 seconds), directly behind career backup, Nick Mullens. Notably, since entering the league, he’s ranked last among 38 qualified QBs for that metric (3.10 seconds).
Both players struggled reading defenses
Once defensive coordinators around the league figured out how to contain both Kaepernick and Fields, they forced them to play within the pocket and go through their progressions. This directly led to issues with processing and, more importantly, accuracy.
During that same 2014 season, Kaepernick attempted only 50.3 percent of his passes within 2.5 seconds of the snap, 19th among those same 27 passers, and a full 4.0 percent lower than average.
Similarly, Fields often failed to see routes develop downfield. The most viral example was in week 2 when Fields failed to hit a wide open receiver streaking up the seam for what likely would have been an easy touchdown. Instead, he tucked the ball and took a costly sack.
Holding the ball too long led to sacks
In that same year, of the 577 dropbacks Kaepernick took, he was sacked on 52 of them. All but 6 of those occurred when he held the ball for longer than 2.6 seconds.
Over Fields’ career, he has taken 101 sacks. About 80% of his sacks are after 4 seconds of holding the ball, leading all NFL quarterbacks in that department.
The stats year over year are nearly identical
Year 1 as a starter:
Year 2 as a starter:
Year 3 as a starter:
Aside from a nearly record breaking year on the ground in year 2 for Fields, the players stats are eerily similar. One could even make the argument that Kaepernick outplayed Fields.
Mechanical Issues
Kaepernick’s elbow placement, a product of his raw physical strength, led to inconsistent passing. Fields replicates this issue with a high elbow, floppy arm, and hitch in his motion, contributing to accuracy concerns and batted balls at the line of scrimmage. These issues hindered both quarterbacks from getting the ball out quickly and on time.
Injuries
For Kaepernick, after tearing his labrum in 2015, he was never quite the same and a combination of injury, poor play, and off-field distractions proved to be the end for him. After 2014, he never played a full season again and his poor play led to many of his teammates calling for his replacement.
As for Fields, he has already missed extended periods of time in each of his 3 NFL seasons, having yet to play a full season. Whether or not he follows in the same path as Kaepernick remains to be seen, but the similarities are hard to ignore. Although he seems to be well regarded in the locker room by his teammates and coaches, a couple more years of below average play may cause them to put his likability and leadership aside and ultimately demand better play.
The cautionary tale of Kaepernick’s rise and fall urges careful consideration. The Bears’ decision not only shapes the immediate future but also affects the team’s payroll flexibility over the next three to four years. The 49ers chose to extend Kaepernick’s contract, which proved to be a major mistake. Thus, doing the same with Fields runs the same risk.
The Bears are on the clock. It’s time to move on from Fields before history repeats itself.
